What’s your preferred casino game, 3 card poker or blackjack w/ basic strategy chart?
To further explain, the chart just gives you the best possible moves you can make in a particular situation according to your hand and the dealer’s up card. I use a chart because it is accurate and reliable, and by using it in the long run, you’ll be making a profit as it always works due to the fact that it is based on the game’s calculations of odds and probabilities. I used to think 3 card poker was a more high risk, high gain type of game, up until I realized by adopting another strategy, I’d win and profit in the long run. Basically how it goes is, Always bet 50k on ante. Don’t even bother with pair plus, the odds of getting the big bonuses are small enough, you’d lose more money through ante plus in the long run. Once cards are handed out, don’t even look at the cards, just bet. The reason for this, is because we have the ability to win with ANY hand we get, no matter the cards. The dealer however HAS to get a queen high or higher or else they have to fold. In the case they fold, you’d still win with whatever hand you had, whenever it was a flush, or an 8 high. For awhile I’ve run a mix of both of the strategies mentioned above, and now have 3.3M chips. At this level, which game would I profit from in the long run, since I can now take multiple losses before my luck turns around
My local casino has 40NL with 1-2 blinds. Everyone plays like it's pot limit poker. Anyone have any special strategy for such shallow cash games?
I've seen people shove with 68 offsuit, A4 suited, etc. It's really hard to put a person on a hand, and nobody folds to a raise. Does anyone have any experience in these types of games? Any theory or strategy discussion welcome.
Keno, Slots, and Video Poker Gamblers of reddit: Are there any strategies to leaving the casino with a profit?
I like to dabble with keno, line games, and video poker, but never do very well. I tend to only put a few bucks in, and make bets up to 50 cents. Some of my friends only play a few numbers in keno, while others like to play all . I always see people sitting at the machines for hours and am wondering if there is any good strategies, or does it really come down to luck? What about bonus games? any particular game trigger bonus rounds more than others?
Had a quick thought that I figure might be worth some discussion. The main theme of this thought is "will poker die soon". Everyone hears about the glory days of the late 90's/early 2000's poker boom when everyone was a fish, GTO wasn't a thing. No one understood EV, position, stack sizes, etc., let alone how to properly range. Fast forward some 20 odd years and now there are software programs solving the game for us. Its almost as if poker has become strictly about memorization and equity analysis (math), and im wondering where we will be in 20 years. My theory is the game will be a net null outcome as GTO theory starts to level across all playing fields. Since GTO is always keeping EV at 0, wouldnt this lend itself to the game eventually becoming pointless (profitless)? I'm wanting to dive deeper into my training and put in more time off the felt, but im also worried about being late to the boat. I guess my real question is: Is it worth it to start diving in now? Will this game be a pointless game of 0 EV due to GTO play? Any discussion and insight is appreciated. Thanks!
Alright Degenerates- I posted a small little snippet a day or so ago about BFT. I wanted to do a bit of DD on BFT but also wanted to highlight something that was brought to my attention by a degenerate gambler. Lastly, I wanted to compile some good little snippets that have been put together by some other members as well as from the investor presentation. Before reading further please understand the major Risks.
This is SPAC with ~10.00 NAV, if the deal falls through it could drop to 10.00 USD
The warrants could be very lucrative but they can be called and if a deal fails to materialize, these can become worthless.
If you're ok with the above risks, continue reading.
Keep in mind that this merger is not complete, but the terms of the deal have been provided to investors and we will be able to either vote yes for the deal or vote no and redeem our shares in BFT for 10.00 cash. So there is downside to this play should the vote not go through or should the two entities terminate the agreement. Right now the downside is ~3 dollars per share according to the close price from today.
Deep Customer Base with deep ties to gambling/betting industry with Deep penetration in Europe and growing customer bases around the world. Gambling is a tricky business and regulated differently than other industries. Many big players have avoided the industry and Paysafe has a great reputation and has become one of the early movers in the industry. The following are some notable customers.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I actually know Paysafe and the usage quite well. PayPal has many restrictions in Europe regarding iGaming , so does Square. This is a big play on iGaming for those that aren’t aware. I was a mid- high stakes online poker player through the 2010-2018. Played a variety of sites. : iPoker; PokerStars, Paddy, MicroGaming, 888, Party. Why so many sites? Because I was always on lookout for where the action was, if a big whale sat down at one online casino; you bet your sweet ass I’m there. So let me give you my take as a consumer that’s probably spent over $100,000 in transaction fees personally on Paysafe. This was one of the cheapest and fastest ways to move money around online. Unlike Stripe this which is against risky business such as CBD and gambling, paysafe is actually one of the leading payment providers in both UK/AUS / Ireland for iGaming. Big example is William Hill, Bet365, Bwin. Now why would you want to move money online around as a gambler ? Well, Visa/MC charge close to 50%->75% more, online casinos = the merchant. They don’t wanna pay that, and in fact put limits on this type of payment processor. (Your visa’s credit cards etc). If a punter deposits / withdraws frequently, the online casino could literally be on the hook for like 20-30% of the turnover throughout the gambler’s period. (This assumes the gambler doesn’t lose all his money per deposit. Imagine you’re a professional sportsbettor, you’re not loyal to one site. Different spreads / odds are offered on every site, you want to be able to move your money from one to another quickly and cheaply. Arbitrage opportunities do exist in sports betting as bookmakers hedge their books to minimize risk, diff frequencies of bets occur on each sports book; you get the idea. For recreational punters, it’s simple: some sporting events that are smaller simply don’t exist on one site that exist on another. Eg. Perhaps you using Pinnacle / 10dimes for low spreads on high volume events, but perhaps you want to gamble on live events on bet365 on another day, and bet ponies on Hill. What if you only have $5000 ? Giant pain in ass to deposit money to each site, paysafe lets you move it around easily. Should you use visa, you may get blocked from depositing on various sites; Bodog, WHill, Bet365 just to name a few. Withdrawals and clearing deposits with bank transfers or checks takes days-> weeks and gamblers ain’t gonna wait for that shit. You can also buy prepaid paysafe cards from stores if you don’t wish to use your real credit card; and load that shit up. One of the biggest markets this is prominent in is South east Asia, they are some of the biggest punters and fucking loving gambling. Looking at you pinoys, Indonesians, Malays. Not everyone wants to fly to Macau to get their rocks off. As much as this is a play on FinTech, please understand this company has more or less the best Payment service on online gambling globally. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ended my gambling career (for now) on a high note - jackpot handpay to end 2020. My thoughts and ramblings as a now-retired gambler.
Warning: long rambling stories ahead. I am bored and waiting to get through my first day back at work since before Christmas. You've been warned! I've been going to the casino pretty regularly for the past few years. Before that, I played occasionally. I exclusively play slots. I view it as a night out - first with friends back when I brought $50 and played penny denom minimum bet spins and prayed to win $20, and then eventually shifting my mindset to playing higher bets and denominations. I hit my first jackpot handpay a couple of years ago. I hit $3700 on a $27 bet on a Geisha machine. I've hit a few other jackpots here and there, culminating with my biggest jackpot ever this past summer. I hit $12K on a $50 bet on a Pompeii slot machine. Well, the long story short is that I have fallen out of love with gambling. I have somehow managed to have a positive ROI on gambling. I track my withdrawls and win on a spreadsheet. To put it bluntly: I have been extremely lucky over the past few years. I know that slots are not a viable way to win money in the long run, so I made a decision a few months ago to "retire" from gambling at the end of 2020. I went to my local casino last Wednesday. It just so happens when I hit a jackpot that I usually do it within the first half hour or so I'm at the casino. Well, it happened again. After going up $600 or so on another slot machine (I don't remember the name), I went to one of my most hated/favorite old school slots - Zeus dollar denomination. One of my worst moments in all of gambling was a few years ago. I got a bonus round on the Zeus dollar denomination on max bet of $45 a spin. I was BEYOND excited. I've seen Youtube videos where people have won tens of thousands of dollars in that exact scenario. Much to my shock, I won nothing. In that game, you don't win anything for triggering the bonus. So I actually *lost* $45 on getting the bonus. I cashed out and left immediately. Anyway, last week I hit a modest $4500. It was exciting...but not as exciting as I thought it should be. I was cool, calm, and...detached. The wins didn't mean much to me, and the losses mean absolutely nothing. My wife and I are in the EXTREMELY fortunate position that losing $500 or so every week or two at the casino is affordable. I'm not ignorant to how lucky we are to be in this position. After getting paid out, I played a bit longer. But that hand pay drove home the realization that I had a few months ago: it was time to stop gambling. If I can't get pumped about a big win like that, and if I'm not even phased a little bit by losing, it's just not worth gambling any more. I used to go for entertainment, but even now gambling doesn't provide that much. As I sit now, I am up roughly $18K over three years of slots. Not bad, but not life changing. Enough that I bought my wife a Burberry and Louis Vuitton handbag on separate occasions. The rest if stashed in savings or in an investment account somewhere. But I am 100% committed to being done. At least for 2021, and probably longer. If anyone is interested in hearing my thoughts on how to win...I don't have any insight to share. It's luck. I got lucky. I know I got lucky. The usual tropes about setting win and loss thresholds is good advice. Sometimes I chased payouts and hit them. Sometimes I chased and lost. But I managed to hit more than miss, and for that I'm lucky. And thankful. Anyway. I don't have a major takeaway or anything. I don't have many people I can talk about this with in my personal life, so I figured I'd share a bit of my story here. If you do gamble, please do so responsibly. Good luck, and try to have fun. If you're not having fun, it's probably not the right way to spend your time or money. EDIT: I just wanted to say to anyone who reads this in the future that I appreciate the nice responses and PMs from people. It's nice to share a positive experience with others! I sincerely hope that if any of you choose to play in the future, you choose to do so responsibly. Gambling can be a hugely problematic lifestyle for some people. Stay safe. (end of preaching here). I also want to take a second to address some comments from some people about slots being skill based. This is 100% false. The concept of slots being skill based in any way is demonstrably untrue with three seconds of reasonable thinking. If we accept that there is a hypothetical slot game which is based on skill and not pure luck, what are the consequences of that? First of all, this information would leak out. There would be no way to contain it. If one person can solve the system, another an as well. Subsequently, someone would write a book on the subject. Think about all the poker and blackjack strategy books out there. These are games where skillful play can increase your odds of winning. Last I checked, there aren't any books or Supersytem-level analyses from prominent individuals willing to stake their names and reputations on publishing a "slot technique" book. There's a reason for this. And also - think about this: casinos still carry blackjack tables for a reason: they still have an edge to win. If there is a surefire way for individuals to win when playing slots, casinos would 100% for sure take these games out of circulation. Casinos are not in the business of giving away money. Any claim there is a foolproof way to win money playing slots does not make sense when critical thinking is applied to the circumstances. Slots are not like card games. Finding and playing only games where there is a "must win by" progressive is not the same thing as skillful play. That's more akin to something like card counting in blackjack. Many people who design slot machines and engineer the software behind the scenes have posted on Reddit and elsewhere that wins are based on random number generators running behind every spin. There is literally no skill involved - you win or lose each spin based on pure random luck. I am saying this because there are a number of people who come to this subreddit to look for ways to cheat the system and get easy money. I see posts like this fairly often, and I'm only browsing this subreddit occasionally. Gambling is not, and should not, be a way for anyone looking to make a quick buck. If you're looking to get an edge playing slots because you need to pay bills or make a quick buck, you are already in serious trouble. Do not buy into the delusion that you can get an edge or guarantee a win. People saying this are snake oil salesmen who do not care for you or your well-being. Anyway. I'm going to stop monitoring this post. I'm still open to receiving PMs or messages, but I've had my fun with this so far. I could do with fewer trolls, but this is the internet. I knew what to expect. Bon chance, everyone!
Ultimate Casino Cashback Guide - Earn over £500 - Every Offer Explained!
This guide aims to outline all of the best gambling cashback offers available over a range of sites, following this guide you should be able to make over £500 in cashback Note - Cashback often takes a while to payout, bear this in mind when completing offers as you may have to wait to cashout your earnings When completing these offers don't chase any loses as the cashback will give you a profit with nerly every offer A short review of each site and some referral links Topcashback - Cashback will show as tracked within a few days, can take a few weeks to become payable, in some cases even longer, asides from gambling they have great offers for car insurance and mobile phone contracts, worth taking a look to save some extra money! Ref - Extra £5 when you make £10 cashback Non-Ref - No reward Quidco - Much the same as Topcashback Ref Non-Ref Minimum payment - £10 Ohmydosh - Faster Payouts but less offers Ref - Extra £1 Non-Ref - No reward Minimum payout - Any Cashback Earners - A lesser known site in need of a fresh look, this site also has some bad reviews, referal income is paid to the site on a monthly basis with the dates for each site being different, offers don't seem to show as tracked until the website receive their payment, cashback should appear in your account within 1 month of completing an offer. Cashout amounts are specific, its best to build up a balance and then withdraw. Payment takes around 3 weeks. Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5 Non-Ref - Sign up bonus £6.5 Minimum payout is £20 Payment Proof - Payments for all sites can be seen here, quidco isn't shown as i have signed up for all the casinos on offer through topcashback
How to Maximize Profit - IMPORTANT - READ THIS
For the majority of these offers you want to play blackjack following the chart found here Any blackjack game will do, look for a normal version of the game at the site you are playing on and make sure it is a non live game as the hand sizes will be lower. When playing blackjack there will often be more than one spot that you can bet on, allowing the player to bet more than one hand at a time, Its important to only bet on one spot at a time as it reduces the variance of the game and will ensure you get the maximum return possible from the game, stick to £1 hand sizes when playing and dont be tempted to bet larger amounts as you will be getting a nice amount of cashback from every offer Through playing blackjack this way the player will get a return of around 98%, meaning for every £100 staked you will lose around £2. If you make a loss on a casino site after completing the required wagering amount, withdraw your remaining balance, don't chase loses as the cashback will make up for loses and give you a profit in most cases. All offers are updated fairly regularly, make sure to check the terms for each offer as information in this post may become outdated. Also check for other offers every now and then as new casinos are added!
TopCashBack Offers - £400+ Profit
Topcashback Referral - Get an extra £5 - See the Ref Link at the top of the page! If you dont already have an account at top cashback, you can sign up through my referral to get an extra £5 added to you account once you make £10 cashback Lottoland - Cashback £15 Add £11 and play 11 separate £1 hands, following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Betfair Casino - Cashback £70 Note this is not the poker offer Add £50 to your account and play 50 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Quidco are offering £100 for this offer Party Casino - Cashback £26.5 Deposit and play 30 single £1 hand son blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Tombola - Cashback £24.5 Deposit £10 and open the tombola roulette game, choose a £1 chip size and choose 5 spots, repeat this twice, withdraw any remaining balance, you will likely lose money here but the cashback will give you a profit Coral - Cashback £46 Add £10 and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Bingoport - Cashback £3 Sign up to bingoport to get an easy £3 Ladbrokes - Cashback £42 Add £10 to your account and play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Pokerstars - Cashback £32 Add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. STS - Cashback £21 Add £30 to your account and play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. William Hill - Cashback £54 add £25 and play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Megacasino - £15.75 Add £25 - Play 25 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. LottoGo - Cashback £3.18 Buy a euromillions ticket Slingo - Cashback £24.75 Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. PaddyPower Games - Cashback £20 Add £10 play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. The Football Pools - Cashback £24.75 Sign up for the £10 a month subscription, cancel this after 30 days Lottomart - Cashback £18 Add £10 - Play 10 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Genting Slots - Cashback £25 Add £30 play 30 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. OhMyDosh - Cashback £40+ Referral gives an extra £1, sign up through the ref link at the top of the post to get the bonus! Gala Bingo - Cashback £17.50 Deposit at least £5, you'll get a £10 slots bonus and 100 free spins, these carry hefty wagering requirements, Open any slot and play the minimum spin size, play until you lose all of the money in your account or complete the wagering requirements on the bonus funds. Withdraw any remaining balance. BGO - £10 Cashback Deposit at least £15. Play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DONT ACCEPT the welcome bonus from BGO. Lottosocial - Cashback £4 Sign up to Lotto Social - Use your correct phone number when joining as it is the only way to login to your account. Purchase 10 lines for £1, after making a purchase go to your account page and find the list of syndicates your are in, leave the syndicates to avoid making any more payments. Cheeky Bingo - £10 Cashback Deposit £10 and get a £40 welcome bonus, just play bingo with all of your funds and hope to get some wins, bonus has 4x wagering requirements.
Quidco - Cashback £100+
Quidco don't offer a sign up bonus, find my ref link at the top of the post if you want to help me out! All of the offers on quidco are much the same as topcashback, the only offer worth noting is the betfair casino offer which pays £100 Betfair - £100 cashback Add £100 and play 100 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance.
Cashbackearners - Cashback £180+
Sign up Bonus Get a £6.5 sign up bonus, think this works with or without the ref link, links are at the top of the post! To find these offers just search for casino on the site. All of these offers state that you only need to make a deposit, its best to play through the deposit 1x to ensure that the cashback is paid. LuckyMeSlots - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 single £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Spin Genie - Cashback £12.5 Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Cashmo - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Ice36 -Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Spinhill Casino - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Galacasino - Cashback £30 add £30 and play 30 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Casino765 - Cashback £12.5 Add £12.5 and play 12.5 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. Casinosuperwins - Not recommended, bad site, awful support Casino2020 - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play through £15 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Pocketwin - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. The Sun Vegas - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. DrSlot - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. MrSpin - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. PrimeCasino - Cashback £15 Add £15 and play 15 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. ConquestAdor - Cashback £10 Add £10 play 10 £1 hands on blackjack following the strategy outlined at the top of the post, withdraw any remaining balance. MFortune - Cashback £10 Add £10 and play through £10 on any slot staking the minimum amount per spin. Keep track of spins and quit the slot after wagering the required amount. Don't spin the wheel that pops up after signing up or accept any other bonuses. Thanks for reading, hope this of use to some people, happy earning!
Need help, on a downswing and a 'friend' is pissing me off even more
So i had a downswing recently, lost abt 5k, thats around 25 buyins playing 200NL online. I figured I may need to take a course and get my strategies solidified. I have a fulltime job and fortunately money isnt an issue right now. The 5k I just lost was actually from an upswing I had turning a deposit of 50 into 5k at 50NL, 100NL, 200NL. But the real issue to me is this poker friend that I have, he has gambling issues of his own. He lost 40k in blackjack at the end of 2019 and hasnt been playing since then. Says he is now off the addiction and is saving up money to build a roll. But I feel like his true test will come when the pandemic is over. Now the problem is he keeps giving me free advise about how I should conduct myself related to poker. That I shouldnt play for a while, or not play online at all etc. Curiously all his advise comes right after I have a downswing. When I am on an upswing he stays calm. It just feels to me that he is being hypocritical when he says I should not have done that, that I should be more careful about money. We have been friends for 4 years now. And this seems to happen often. For example he advises me to play less poker and then he just plays like a 48 hour session of live poker and claims "the action was good", also there was a period of 30 days when he went to the casino everyday. It is tough to listen to someone go off and advise you on things which they dont seem to follow themselves. I have told him as much and he says me calling him a hypocrite wont help and that instead I should take his advise and get better. This leads to arguments and I feel like I should say goodbye to this poker friendship. What are your thoughts?
Hey everyone. This was my first year playing poker seriously, by trying to apply strategies and recording every session played. In total, I played 245 sessions over the course of 362 hours, with the majority of it being online microstakes where I would apply what I studied. Given how the year went and all casinos closing, I was only able to play live 1/2 only a few times... can you guess where on the graph those sessions occurred? Haha. Hoping 2021 is better for everyone on and off the tables. See you guys next year! https://preview.redd.it/vmwubpzoqm861.jpg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b4896dfdea50e97f1a4859d3ef833ccc930c6ca
Hey everyone, I am a former Wall Street trader and quant researcher. When I was preparing for my own interviews, I have noticed the lack of accurate information and so I will be providing my own perspectives. One common pattern I see is people building their own algorithm by blindly fitting statistical methods such as moving averages onto data. I have published this elsewhere, but have copy pasted it entirely below for you to read to keep it in the spirit of the sub rules. Edit: Removed link.
What it was like trading on Wall Street
Right out of college, I began my trading career at an electronic hedge fund on Wall Street. Several friends pitched trading to me as being a more disciplined version of wallstreetbets that actually made money. After flopping several initial interviews, I was fortunate to land a job at a top-tier firm of the likes of Jane Street, SIG, Optiver and IMC. On my first day, I was instantly hooked. My primary role there was to be a market maker. To explain this, imagine that you are a merchant. Suppose you wanted to purchase a commodity such as an apple. You would need to locate an apple seller and agree on a fair price. Market makers are the middle-men that cuts out this interaction by being always willing to buy or sell at a given price. In finance lingo, this is called providing liquidity to financial exchanges. At any given moment, you should be confident to liquidate your position for cash. To give a sense of scale, tens of trillions in dollars are processed through these firms every year. My time trading has been one of the most transformative periods of my life. It not only taught me a lot of technical knowledge, but it also moulded me to be a self-starter, independent thinker, and hard worker. I strongly recommend anyone that loves problem solving to give trading a shot. You do not need a mathematics or finance background to get in. The trading culture is analogous to professional sports. It is a zero sum game where there is a clear defined winner and loser — you either make or lose money. This means that both your compensation and job security is highly dependent on your performance. For those that are curious, the rough distribution of a trader’s compensation based on performance is a tenth of the annual NBA salary. There is a mystique about trading in popular media due to the abstraction of complicated quantitative models. I will shed light on some of the fundamental principles rooted in all trading strategies, and how they might apply to you.
One way traders make money is through an arbitrage or a risk free trade. Suppose you could buy an apple from Sam for $1, and then sell an apple to Megan at $3. A rational person would orchestrate both legs of these trades to gain $2 risk free. Arbitrages are not only found in financial markets. The popular e-commerce strategy of drop-shipping is a form of arbitrage. Suppose you find a tripod selling on AliExpress at $10. You could list the same tripod on Amazon for $20. If someone buys from you, then you could simply purchase the tripod off AliExpress and take home a neat $10 profit. The same could be applied to garage sales. If you find a baseball card for $2 that has a last sold price on EBay for $100, you have the potential to make $98. Of course this is not a perfect arbitrage as you face the risk of finding a buyer, but the upside makes this worthwhile.
Positive expected value bets
Another way traders make money is similar to the way a casino stacks the odds in their favour. Imagine you flip a fair coin. If it lands on heads you win $3, and if it lands on tails you lose $1. If you flip the coin only once, you may be unlucky and lose the dollar. However in the long run, you are expected to make a positive profit of $1 per coin flip. This is referred to as a positive expected value bet. Over the span of millions of transactions, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit. This exact principle is why you should never gamble in casino games such as roulette. These games are all negative expected value bets, which guarantees you to lose money over the long run. Of course there are exceptions to this, such as poker or card counting in black jack. The next time you walk into a casino, make a mental note to observe the ways it is designed to keep you there for as long as possible. Note the lack of windows and the maze like configurations. Even the free drinks and the cheap accommodation are all a farce to keep you there.
Relative pricing is a great strategy to use when there are two products that have clear causal relationships. Let us consider an apple and a carton of apple juice. Suppose there have a causal relationship where the carton is always $9 more expensive than the apple. The apple and the carton is currently trading at $1 and $10 respectively. If the price of the apple goes up to $2, the price is not immediately reflected on the carton. There will always be a time lag. It is also important to note that there is no way we can determine if the apple is trading at fair value or if its overpriced. So how do we take advantage of this situation? If we buy the carton for $10 and sell the apple for $2, we have essentially bought the ‘spread’ for $8. The spread is fairly valued at $9 due to the causal relationship, meaning we have made $1. The reason high frequency trading firms focus so much on latency in the nanoseconds is to be the first to scoop up these relative mispricing. This is the backbone for delta one strategies. Common pairs that are traded against each other includes ETFs and their inverse counterpart, a particular stock against an ETF that contains the stock, or synthetic option structures.
Correlations are mutual connections between two things. When they trend in the same direction they are said to have a positive correlation, and the vice versa is true for negative correlations. A popular example of positive correlation is the number of shark attacks with the number of ice-cream sales. It is important to note that shark attacks do not cause ice-cream sales. Often times there are no intuitive reason for certain correlations, but they still work. The legendary Renaissance Technologies sifted through petabytes of historical data to find profitable signals. For instance, good morning weather in a city tended to predict an upward movement in its stock exchange. One could theoretically buy stock on the opening and sell at noon to make a profit. One important piece of advice is to disregard any retail trader selling a course to you, claiming that they have a system. These are all scams. At best, these are bottom of the mill signals that are hardly profitable after transaction costs. It is also unlikely that you have the system latency, trading experience or research capabilities to do this on your own. It is possible, but very difficult.
Another common strategy traders rely on is mean reversion trends. In the options world the primary focus is purchasing volatility when it is cheap compared to historical values, and vice versa. Buying options is essentially synonymous with buying volatility. Of course, it is not as simple as this so don’t go punting your savings on Robinhood using this strategy. For most people, the most applicable mean reversion trend is interest rates. These tend to fluctuate up and down depending on if the central banks want to stimulate saving or spending. As global interest rates are next to zero or negative, it may be a good idea to lock in this low rate for your mortgages. Again, consult with a financial advisor before you do anything.
Introduction Seriously? Another poker guide? Surely we already have enough that describe optimal play. Well yes, but no . As those guides will get you 95+% of the way there, my goal was mainly just for fun, but it also allows me to share a few extra simple rules to get even more out of the game. For those who just want to know the strategy and no details you can skip until the TLDR. Before I lose your attention here are the new questions that I tackle (note: natural pair means a pair formed without the use of a joker)
When dealt a starting hand with both a natural pair and 4 of a particular suit, should you keep the pair (go for 2 pairs, 3 of a kind, etc.) or keep the 4 of a particular suit (go for a flush)?
When dealt a starting hand with both a natural pair and 4 cards of a straight, should you keep the pair (go for 2 pairs, 3 of a kind, etc.) or keep the 4 cards (go for a straight)?
How much extra value does the card counting strategy bring in the higher-lower game?
Have These Questions Really Not Been Answered Yet? While there are excellent guides on the overall strategy (see YANFLY) , one that calculate the odds of winning poker hands (u/PinoyEvan5), and one that calculates the expected returns of playing higher-lower (u/BillsHere1), there is still no full game solution. The probability of winning poker hands only matters when we know the expected returns of playing higher-lower for various multipliers. That is for a complete solution we need to combine and expand on the previous guides. How Do I Answer These Questions? I wrote code to simulate the games and then played them millions of times. For anyone interested, I wrote a ten page document that explains the entire process and shows the code. If anybody wishes to implement it themselves I can send you the R Markdown file if you DM me. Results Preliminaries Before we an answer any of the questions, the first thing that needs to be done is to solve the expected value of playing the higher-lower game. Following past guides, we will be playing the 2 card higher-lower for 1000 chips. The optimal strategy is as follows:
If face up card is higher than 8, choose low
If face up card is lower than 8 choose high
If face up card is 8, choose either
Using this strategy, and implementing it in my higher-lower game, I ran 10 million simulations and got the following results for various multipliers (+/- gives the 95% confidence interval).
x1 (2 pairs, 3 of a kind): 42832 +/- 114 [6.2% probability of positive winnings]
x3 (Straight): 101322 +/- 231 [7.2% probability of positive winnings]
x4 (Flush): 135350 +/- 309 [7.2% probability of positive winnings]
x10 (Full House): 236347 +/- 458 [9.3% probability of positive winnings]
x20 (4 of a kind): 320897 +/- 525 [12.5% probability of positive winnings]
x25 (Straight Flush): 271965 +/- 372 [17.0% probability of positive winnings]
x60 (5 of a kind): 440917 +/- 501 [23.0% probability of positive winnings]
x250 (Royal Flush): 839932 +/- 612 [42.0% probability of positive winnings]
Question 1 Now that we know the expected returns of various multipliers we can figure out whether keep the pair or the 4 of a suit when dealt a starting hand with both. As there are many cases, I decided to again estimate these through running millions of simulations (see the document for details). In the end (got lazy with errors, but with this many simulations and a difference that wide should not be a problem), I got the following expected values to the various strategies:
Keeping the natural pair (go for 2 pair, 3 of a kind, etc.): 18971
Keeping the 4 of a suit (go for flush): 28198
In these situations you should GO FOR THE FLUSH Question 2 The analysis for the straight is quite similar but here we need to consider that inside straight draws on open ended draws have different odds. Fortunately, keeping the pair is better in both cases so it simplifies our overall strategy. The following shows the expected value for going for a straight when you have 4 in a row (i.e. an open ended draw), which has a higher expected return than an inside draw
Keeping the natural pair (go for 2 pair, 3 of a kind, etc.): 18971
Keeping the open ended straight draw (go for straight): 18998
The difference here is not statistically significant and quite negligible. While one should be indifferent between the two from an expected return perspective, from a human perspective it is easier to remember that you go for the pair in all such situations. In these situations you should KEEP THE PAIR. Question 3 Question 3 is particularly interesting. A key part about playing the higher-lower game is that cards will not show up twice - this means card counting is a viable strategy. As has been pointed out in many guides, a simple card counting strategy is as follows:
Start running tally at 0. If card is below 8, add -1. If card is above 8, add +1.
If face up card is anything except 8, use the old strategy.
If face up card is an 8, choose high if tally is negative, choose low if tally is positive.
The question is how much of a gain is this card counting? If the gain is small, then the player probably cannot justify using it if it adds extra time to playing. However, if the gains are large then it might be justifiable even if it slows down your ability to play. To test this I ran 10 million simulations using this card counting strategy for the x1 multiplier situation and go the following outcome:
x1 (No Card Counting): 42832 +/- 114
x1 (With Card Counting): 43385 +/- 115
The results are it adds about 1.3% to your expected return. Personally, I think using it adds well more than 1.3% to my playing time so for me personally counting cards is not a viable strategy. For extra analysis, I looked into a full solution card counting strategy (one that allows for cases when picking lower is better for a 7, picking higher is better for a 9, etc.), but these cases are so rare it adds essentially nothing (0.1% gain which is non significant). Acknowledgements Thanks to u/Aerdra for the crucial feedback and correcting an error in my code. This has now been corrected in both the post and document. TLDR - Summary Provides a summary of the optimal strategy for playing poker. Contributions added in this post are in bold, while all the rest was previously known in previous guides. Poker Phase: General Strategy
Keep all cards that are part of a winning hand. You should replace any cards in that hand that do not contribute to winning
If dealt a natural pair, keep the pair and replace the other 3 cards
If dealt 4 of a suit (including if one is a joker), keep all 4 and go for a flush
If dealt 4 cards of a straight (including if one is a joker), keep all 4 and go for a straight
Otherwise replace all cards (except for a joker in which case you should keep it) [You may also want to consider keeping hands with 3 cards of a flush or a straight as pointed out by u/Aerdra but as u/Storm1k points out playing fast is best - the payoffs are so low it is probably more optimal to save time with fewer button presses]
Poker Phase: Tiebreaks
If dealt a hand with a natural pair and 4 cards of a suit, go for a flush
If dealt a hand with a natural pair and 4 cards of a straight, keep the pair and replace the other 3 cards
Higher-Lower Phase In higher and lower you should play until the game ends either by losing, completing round 10, or passing the cap limit by using the following strategy:
If face up card is above 8, play low
If face up card is below 8, play high
If face up card is 8, play either [might be easier to press "low" as pointed out by u/hkidnc]
Additionally, a +/- 1 card counting strategy can be used for additional gains of 1.3%. [A benefit which for most players is too small to justify the effort of card counting] Happy Halloween! And grinding!
Stemming off of repetitive conversations in the Subreddit. It seems most people hold the belief that trading is gambling. I question the validity of such boxed simplistic views. You say trading is gambling. Just because everything you said is mostly true, doesn’t mean it is foolish to not call it gambling. That’s just a simplistic label for a complex game. Something that lets you easily identify your perspective and experiences in life with trading. I would assume a professional trader might scoff at the notion of his 30 years of consistent profits being referred to as gambling. I don’t know any, but I know successful people that upon hearing trading referred to as gambling, will immediately assume they are talking to a inexperienced, ignorant trader. Does that make them foolish? I don’t know. Does it make them wrong? At the end of the day does it really matter? Actual gambling is a game with fairly simplistic rules that are designed for the house to win. It would seem like the house represents the monopoly’s that created the markets and the banks that profit from retail traders. On the surface these similarities make sense to me as a means of comparison. Where I want to draw attention is the fact that the strategies you can engage in within the market are endless. The methods you can use to hedge or save ass are endless. So maybe an argument exists for why trading isn’t at all like gambling. Maybe the real gamble is the fact that so few people know how to manage risk and engage in multiple games at once to even their odds. Which then brings you to the real difference that some people identify. Unlike in the casino, in the market you can hedge your risks with the most effective tool- knowledge. And those with lots of knowledge are so well informed they have minimized their risk to such an extent that they resent their activity being referred to as a gamble. But they can still lose. So what should we make of that? Maybe gamble is too simplistic of a description for something infinitely more complex than any game you’d find in a casino. Maybe we all find a different description for every game that best describes our life experiences in that game, and not the greater experience of general population or those who excel. Even a professional gambler is more likely to refer to poker as work rather than gambling. Maybe it’s best to keep perspective and not draw simple ideologies for complex structures and experiences. Maybe it is best to be humble in more ways than assuming your trading is a gamble. Maybe it’s best to assume that the level you achieve in your experience will heavily weight your views and that humility might bring you closer towards achieving something beyond what can be easily described as gambling. Maybe the real complexity that comes from trading isn’t the complexity we see in the market, but rather in ourselves. Our experiences corrupt our views and judgements and until we master ourselves we can never master the markets, cause mastering yourself is the best path towards creating a foundation of ideals and views that can projected on the world and give us a better view of the future. Maybe the word gambling is just another biased label that makes you jaded and hopeless. Could it be that the best path forward is admitting that the game can be won by simply ensuring that many more games can be played? And thru that philosophy you can generate what can be referred to as risk management. And from those beginnings maybe you can develop more knowledge, simply by ensuring your survival so that you may develop experience. And thru these experiences you stay opened minded and humble. You learn. You gain knowledge. You lay your preconceived notions and views at the feet of the market and see what answers it gives. And maybe, one day, you can achieve something more than just a gamble. Then again, the only thing I really know, is that this is some fire weed. Now let’s all take a hit and talk it out. God bless.
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